Monte Carlo Simulation with Julia (Growth Model)

Learning note of using Julia for simulation

In this note, I’m trying to use the Julia language to run some simulations.

using LinearAlgebra, Distributions, Random
using Optim, ForwardDiff
using Tables, MarkdownTables
using StatsPlots

First, here’s an example of simulating multivariate normal random variables

Random.seed!(1234)
μ = [0, 1, 2]
Σ = cov(randn(100, 3))
n = 200
y = rand(MvNormal(μ, Σ), n)

3×200 Matrix{Float64}:
 0.0540757  -0.102689  0.658599  0.611513  …  0.879624  0.605667  0.595295
 1.14527    -0.222159  2.24221   1.30428      0.254144  2.05194   2.90419
 2.6294      0.572331  1.47629   2.98324      4.10777   1.05924   1.56324

Growth Model Example

Specify implied moments from a growth model

growth_moments(Λ, α, Ψ, Θ) = (μ = Λ * α, Σ = Hermitian(Λ * Ψ * Λ') + Θ)
Λ = [1 0
     1 1
     1 2
     1 3]
α = [0, 1]
Ψ = Symmetric([1 0.2
               0.2 0.25])
Θ = Symmetric([    1  0.2 0.04 0.008
                 0.2    1  0.2  0.04
                0.04  0.2    1   0.2
               0.008 0.04  0.2     1])  # autoregressive structure
gm = growth_moments(Λ, α, Ψ, Θ)

(μ = [0, 1, 2, 3], Σ = [2.0 1.4 1.44 1.608; 1.4 2.65 2.3000000000000003 2.59; 1.44 2.3000000000000003 3.8 3.7; 1.608 2.59 3.7 5.45])

Simulate data from a growth model

sim_dat = rand(MvNormal(growth_moments(Λ, α, Ψ, Θ)...), 500)

4×500 Matrix{Float64}:
 0.629762  -0.205364   1.64222   0.486685  …  -0.292158  0.13341  -0.624102
 1.95646    3.54633   -0.797253  0.608302      1.88673   1.03129  -0.378568
 1.91765    2.56468    0.553998  3.44475       2.42096   3.01259   0.746786
 1.88494    2.93066    0.570765  1.94388       0.564698  3.71769   0.984581

Fit a growth model using maximum likelihood estimation using Optim.jl

"""
    growth_ll(α, Ψ, Θ, Λ, y)

Compute log-likelihood of the input parameters given data y

α = latent means
Ψ = latent variance and covariances
Θ = error covariances
Λ = loading matrix
"""
function growth_ll(α, Ψ, Θ, Λ, y)
    μhat, Σhat = growth_moments(Λ, α, Ψ, Θ)
    if !isposdef(Σhat)
        return Inf
    end
    d = MvNormal(μhat, Σhat)
    loglikelihood(MvNormal(μhat, Σhat), y)
end
growth_ll(α, Ψ, Θ, Λ, sim_dat)
"""
    growth_ll(θ, Λ, y)

Compute log-likelihood of the input parameter vector given data y
"""
function growth_ll(θ, Λ, y)
    α = view(θ, 1:2)
    Ψ = reshape(θ[[3, 4, 4, 5]], (2, 2))
    Θ = [θ[6] * θ[7]^abs(i - j) for i in 1:4, j in 1:4]
    growth_ll(α, Ψ, Θ, Λ, y)
end
# Maximum likelihood estimation
# Starting values:
θ₀ = vcat(α, Ψ[[1, 2, 4]], 1, .2)
opt = optimize(x -> -growth_ll(x, Λ, sim_dat), θ₀, Newton(); autodiff=:forward)

 * Status: success

 * Candidate solution
    Final objective value:     3.378396e+03

 * Found with
    Algorithm:     Newton's Method

 * Convergence measures
    |x - x'|               = 1.09e-07 ≰ 0.0e+00
    |x - x'|/|x'|          = 1.11e-07 ≰ 0.0e+00
    |f(x) - f(x')|         = 1.36e-12 ≰ 0.0e+00
    |f(x) - f(x')|/|f(x')| = 4.04e-16 ≰ 0.0e+00
    |g(x)|                 = 4.75e-12 ≤ 1.0e-08

 * Work counters
    Seconds run:   0  (vs limit Inf)
    Iterations:    4
    f(x) calls:    12
    ∇f(x) calls:   12
    ∇²f(x) calls:  4

Wrap into a function

function sim_θhat(n)
    ysim = rand(MvNormal(growth_moments(Λ, α, Ψ, Θ)...), n)
    opt = optimize(x -> -growth_ll(x, Λ, ysim), θ₀, Newton(); autodiff=:forward)
    opt.minimizer
end

sim_θhat (generic function with 1 method)

Repeat \(R\) replications

num_obs = 250
num_rep = 500
# Initialize output
results = Matrix(undef, length(θ₀), num_rep)
for i in 1:num_rep
    results[:, i] = sim_θhat(num_obs)
end
# Mean estimates
mean(results, dims = 2)

7×1 Matrix{Float64}:
 0.0006639386137645048
 0.9978489158537106
 0.9454197504862293
 0.20577261923685305
 0.24026813468427904
 1.0373020388366407
 0.2070202636496464

Result table

Table 1: Bias of Parameter Estimates

parnames = ["αᵢ", "αₛ", "ψᵢ", "ψᵢₛ", "ψₛ", "θ", "ρ"]
results_tbl = hcat(parnames,
                   mean(results, dims = 2),
                   mean(results, dims = 2) .- θ₀)
print(markdown_table(Tables.table(results_tbl; header = [:Parameter, :Estimate, :Bias]), String))

Parameter	Estimate	Bias
αᵢ	0.0006639386137645048	0.0006639386137645048
αₛ	0.9978489158537106	-0.002151084146289395
ψᵢ	0.9454197504862293	-0.05458024951377072
ψᵢₛ	0.20577261923685305	0.005772619236853044
ψₛ	0.24026813468427904	-0.009731865315720956
θ	1.0373020388366407	0.03730203883664074
ρ	0.2070202636496464	0.007020263649646391

Plot

Plots.boxplot(repeat(parnames, outer = 500), vec(results .- θ₀), legend = false)

Figure 1: Bias of Parameter Estimates